Two for the last straight line

 At day 484 of the Belgian government negotiations king Philip has at last been able to send out a real 'formateur' to create a new government. Correction: he has sent out two, strengthening the impression that much remains to be solved, not the least the name of the new prime minister.

 King Philip received the two 'pre-formateurs', Conner Rousseau (president of the Flemish socialists) and Egbert Lachaert (president of the Flemish liberals) for their report at the Royal Palace in Brussels on Wednesday at 18:30. That was two days later than planned, as on Sunday a row had broken out about the manoeuvres and declarations of Georges-Louis Bouchez, the president of the French-speaking liberals.

Lachaert and Roussau (on the picture the latter just enters his official Volkswagen, while the liberal is already seated in his official Mercedes, after both made a declaration together at the gates of the Palace this evening) in the end still could report that they had achieved a basic agreement on the main issues between the seven parties around the table: two socialist, two liberal, two greens and the Flemish Christian democrats, controlling together 88 of the 150 seats in the federal parliament.

 Thereupon the Palace announced at 19:15 that the king had designated Paul Magnette, the president of the French-speaking socialists, and Alexander De Croo, since 2013 deputy prime minister for the Flemish liberals, to become the 'co-formateurs' of the new government. The formateur is normally the last negotiator before the government is formed.

 The fact that there were two formateurs to be sent out, was widely interpreted as an indication that there is still no agreement on who will become the next prime minister. Besides it is also obvious that the agreement both 'pre-formateurs' claimed to have obtained is indeed very 'general' and that many details have still to be negotiated, including the way to finance all those promises.

 On the other hand the latest evolutions seem to indicate a rather strong will among the seven parties to take the road together, if only to avoid new elections. The two formateurs have to report to the king on the 28th of August, so next Monday.

 

Corona slowdown

 

 

 Belgian government negotiations, today in their 473th day, have slowed down this week, due to a positive corona-test last Tuesday of Egbert Lachaert, the president of the Flemish liberals and one of the two ‘pre-formateurs’. Other negotiators, and even king Philip, then also took the corona-test, but nobody had a positive result. Nevertheless, all have to stay at home to have a second test confirming the first one.

 

 Meanwhile the negotiations have to take place online. As it is usual that the last round to reach an agreement is also a physical competition, whereby the negotiators play on each other’s exhaustion and the compromise is often reached after dawn, the deadline for a breakthrough was postponed.

 

 In principle the two ‘pre-formateurs’ sent out on 4 September by king Philip, Lachaert and his socialist colleague Conner Rousseau, should have reported to the king on Friday the 11th. After that a ‘formateur’ – most likely the designated prime minister of the new coalition – should have been sent out to do the real negotiations on political compromises. In reality, there has been no progress on the thorny issue of who will lead the coalition.

 

 Rousseau and Lachaert reported via telephone to the King on Friday. Their mission has now been prolonged with one week. In the official statement the 1st of October was indicated as the date where the new government should come into life. The negotiators also stated that, ‘it is important that the present federal minority government will continue to operate with full competences until that date’.

 

 The present government of Sophie Wilmès, which was a minority government (with only 38 of the 150 seats in the present parliament) since December 2018, indeed obtained the support of a parliamentary majority last 17 March, in order to combat the corona-crisis. Wilmès then announced that she would try to obtain the confidence again six months later, on 17 September.

 

 That date has now been postponed to 1 October. Nevertheless, as the extreme right opposition (Vlaams Belang) has laid down a motion of no-confidence, a vote will still take place next Thursday.

Did you say breakthrough?

 

At day 465 in the Belgian government negotiations a breakthrough was announced: formal negotiations are going to start between seven political parties. King Philip appointed the previous negotiator Egbert Lachaert as ‘pre-formateur’ and added the president of the Flemish socialists, 27-years old Conner Rousseau, in the same role. That move is intriguing.

 

 In the last week Lachaert seems to have convinced the Flemish Christian democrats to make at least a try at negotiations with the two socialist, liberal and green parties. Together they have a majority of 87 of the 150 seats in the federal parliament. The French-speaking Christian democrats, with 5 seats and although interested again (they said last year they would choose for opposition), were dumped at the request of the other French-speaking parties.

 

 The recently elected party president of the Flemish liberals was therefore announcing good news to king Philip when he came to report about his mission at the Brussels palace on Friday at 2 pm. Although there are many compromises still to be made, formal negotiations at last can start, the first time in 465 days. The king immediately reappointed him, gave a formal name to his mission (‘pre-formateur’) and nominated Conner Roussau in the same role.

 

 Both in the evening gave an interview on the Flemish public television – Rousseau in the news, Lachaert in the news analysis program afterwards – in which especially the liberal opened wide perspectives on good compromises about long-term reforms. Lachaert, impressively voluntaristic, even spoke about an attempt to set the guidelines until 2030.

 

 Asked why he seems to succeed where so many failed, the liberal party president claimed that he had shown respect for all his counterparts, whereas up to now too many negotiators had tried to push people into compromises from a position of force and even with threats. Lachaert was himself three weeks ago responsible for the break-up of the negotiations between the Flemish nationalists and the French-speaking socialists, saying that Bart De Wever, the president of the nationalists, had played his cards far too heavy-handed.

 

  Both he and Rousseau indicated that this would be their sole interview and that they would keep up radio-silence again until the end of their mission, which king Philip indeed put on 11 September, next Friday. The two pre-formateurs also said that their main mission is to find out who will succeed them as the real ‘formateur’, the person who should lead the negotiations and become the prime minister if successful.

 

 It was indeed expected that king Philip would have designated one or two ‘formateurs’ yesterday, among them Paul Magnette. The fact that he appointed two Flemish politicians – whereas normally a tandem is formed of politicians of each language community – seems to indicate that the problem is on the French-speaking side.

 

 Magnette in an interview on Thursday said that if a French-speaking politician is accepted as prime minister, his party has the right to claim the job as the biggest one in French-speaking Belgium, and because the socialist ‘family’ (both socialist parties together) is the largest one in parliament. And that he is ready to take up the task if confined to him.

 

 But it seems that this was not accepted by his French-speaking liberal counterpart Georges-Louis Bouchez during a quite noisy meeting on Thursday evening. Besides there seem to be some claims on the Flemish side too. The four Flemish parties taken together command only 42 of the 89 Flemish seats in the federal parliament. This would be ammunition for the Flemish opposition, the two largest parties in that part of the country, the right-wing nationalists and the extreme-right (and also separatist) Vlaams Belang.

 

 Lachaert and Rousseau yesterday argued that 48 % of the votes in Flanders is sufficient legitimacy and that many previous federal governments did not have a majority in each part of the country. But comments in the media do not exclude that a Flemish prime minister would be a good way to compensate this, even if he does not lead the biggest political group in the government (which is the PS, followed by the MR).

 Each of the four Flemish parties in the federal-government-in-the-making commands only 6 or 8 % of the seats in parliament. Should nevertheless a Flemish politician be needed tot become prime minister, the Flemish liberal Alexander De Croo is the most likely candidate, although the Flemish Christian democrats last week claimed they had obtained more votes (but as many seats in the parliament) in the elections of 2019.

 

 Yesterday morning Gwendolyn Rutten, Lachaert’s predecessor as head of the liberals, posted on Instagram the at that time controversial picture again she posted first in November last year. In it she is blowing a bubble that takes the colours of green, purple ('purple-green was the name of the first and only coalition of socialists, liberals and greens between 1999 and 2003) and orange, the colour of the Christian democrats. (picture). Rutten seemed last autumn on her way to become prime minister of such a coalition, but was torpedoed by her own party. Among the crew of the U-boot were Lachaert and De Croo, using the argument that such a coalition would be bad for the country and its liberals.

 

 Rutten nevertheless congratulated Lachaert with his breakthrough in a tweet later on Friday. It might become a long and thrilling week in Belgian politics.