A resounding njet

In less than ten minutes on Thursday afternoon Bart De Wever, the leader of the Flemish nationalists, shot down almost all the proposals his counterpart Elio di Rupo made three days ago, in the first serious attempt to propose a government program. After 390 days Belgium is back to square one.

De Wever had called for a press conference in a meeting room of the Flemish Parliament at 2 pm. Up to Thursday-morning only the two liberal parties had answered ‘yes but’ to the proposals the ‘formateur’, Elio di Rupo, had made on Monday. As soon as the press conference of the Flemish nationalists (NVA) was announced the five remaining parties that have been invited to the government negotiations also announced a conditional approval for di Rupo’s text.

The Flemish Christian first announced a press conference, then canceled it because of the announcement of the NVA-press conference. Finally their president Wouter Beke came out of the party headquarters at 1 pm to say that his party was ready to negotiate but would not do so if the NVA would not participate.

The last element was exactly the message that De Wever delivered one hour later, in a quite strong-worded statement in which he criticised almost every element of di Rupo’s proposal. And he summarized: ‘With the best will of the world, I cannot believe that negotiations on this base will end up in success.’

The announcement sent shock waves through the political scenery in Belgium. Many accused De Wever of fleeing his responsibilities as largest party of the country. Some suggested that a coalition without NVA should be formed. But as the Flemish Christian democrats confirmed that they would not enter into a government without the nationalists, it was clear that such a government would have a very weak position in Flanders.

New elections are now the most logical outcome, although it is at the moment far from certain that there can be found a majority in the Lower House to vote for an early dissolution. Elio di Rupo meanwhile declined to react to the new situation. He will only come out with a statement Friday.

A man, a plan

Fourty eight days after he was appointed for the second time and 386 days after the last elections, Elio di Rupo, one of the winners last year, finally presented what looks like a reasonable and detailed proposal for a government program. The final round of the longest government negotiations ever in Belgium and the world seems now to have started.

Di Rupo, the leader of the French-speaking socialists and since May the 17^th the ‘formateur’ of a new government, presented a note of 105 pages to King Albert this noon. At the same time he sent it to the presidents of eight other political parties (socialists, Christian democrats, liberals and greens on each side of the language border, and the Flemish nationalists).

The note was the result of seven weeks of talks about all pending issues for a new government: institutional reform, financial devolution, budget cuts, reform of the political and justice system, new migration policies. During the press conference he held for one hour and an half in the parliament from 5 pm onwards, it rapidly became clear that di Rupo had worked out a detailed proposal with surprisingly new and balanced ideas.

The unexpected new element was that for the first time he openly put some socialist taboos into question, among these the idea that unemployment benefits should not be decreasing in time. Automatic indexation of wages on the other hand was upheld, as was the age limit of 65 years to go into retirement.

In general the impression was that di Rupo had accepted the need for drastic changes – which up to now he did not seem to – but in a framework of upholding as much of the existing systems unchanged as possible, to make these survive. It is not a blistering new project for the country he proposed, but a realistic correction programm for the next three years. Given the rather good economic performances of Belgium the last one and a half year, it is a defendable choice, even if it will not be liked by those who hoped for a new beginning.

For the moment it is only the opening move in negotiations in which formally nine parties are invited to participate. Di Rupo gave them time until Thursday evening to come with a Yes or No. Most bets are on many ‘Yes, but’.