Last try, heading for center left

 

 King Philip has given Egbert Lachaert, the president of the Flemish liberals, one more week to start formal government negotiations in Belgium. At day 459 it seems that in three weeks there will be either a center-left government or a decision for new elections.

 

 Lachaert started his negotiations on 18 August. And although he refuses to confirm it explicitly, it is obvious that he is working on a center-left coalition with liberals, socialists and greens and eventually the Christian democrats. Without the latter – leading to a reconstruction of the first 'purple-green' coalition of Guy Verhofstadt in the years 1999-2003 – the coalition would have 76 of the 150 seats in the federal parliament. It will in any way not have a majority among the Flemish MPs.

 

 The negotiator is working on a note of 50 pages to propose to his coalition partners. Up to now he encountered frozen reactions with the socialists – who suggest they obtained less from him than from Bart De Wever of the N-VA in the beginning of August. The Christian democrats for their part express serious doubts, maybe only to raise the prize. The greens seem to be the most willing. Lachaert received on Friday one week from king Philip to bring a workable majority around one negotiating table, something which has happened only a few moments in the previous 459 days, each time in vain.

 

 Before that the president of the Flemish socialists, Conner Rousseau, declared that if this attempt fails, he will seek new elections. This is indeed the most likely scenario in that case. On 17 September parliament will meet to see if it confirms its vote of confidence, that it gave on 17 March to the caretaking government of Sophie Wilmès, in order to tackle the corona-crisis.

 

 The intriguing question these days is why Egbert Lachaert changed his mind. Last November, when the then liberal party president Gwendolyn Rutten was manoeuvring to take part in a coalition of greens, socialists and liberals – eventually with herself at the head – Lachaert, who was in the running to succeed her, was the most strong advocate against this coalition, pleading instead to work with the Flemish nationalist.

 

 Now, almost ten months later, he takes the same direction as Rutten. The difference might be that he had then the support of Alexander De Croo, today minister of Finances and deputy prime minister. He seems to have it today again, for the other option. De Croo might turn out to become the next prime minister, if Paul Magnette, the president of the French-speaking socialists, thinks this is better to defend the vulnerable Flemish flank of the new government to form.

 

 In one week we might see more clear.

 

 

 

The doubter to lift the doubt

 

King Philip has appointed Egbert Lachaert, the new president of the Flemish liberals, to seek an outcome for the Belgian government formation, today in its 448^th day. He received no official title, and will report on the 28^th of August. The days of the still present government Wilmès II seem now numbered.

 

 King Philip started his consultations on his return from holiday on Monday morning. Until Tuesday noon he spoke to all party presidents, except those of the extreme left and the extreme right. Then Tuesday afternoon at about 3 pm the palace announced that the King had accepted the resignation of Bart De Wever and Paul Magnette and had appointed Lachaert to take ‘the necessary initiatives with the aim of forming a government with a wide majority in parliament”. 

 

 Lachaert received no official title for his mission. Indeed there is officially still a government with a working parliamentary majority: the government of Sophie Wilmès, that is composed of the two liberal parties and the Flemish Christian democrats. This was a caretaking minority government from 18 December 2018 until 15 March 2020. It then obtained the support of a majority of parliament to combat the corona-crisis. It will face a confidence vote on 17 September, when parliament returns.

 

 As both socialist parties and the Flemish nationalists have indicated they will vote against her government, they have, together with the two extremes, a majority of 83 votes. There is no doubt that this number is sufficient to topple the government, but there are some ambiguities in the constitution. If Wilmès hands in her resignation before a vote, parliament is obliged to vote for new elections to prevent her of staying on indefinitely as caretaker government.

 

 King Philip took back the initiative that he has to form a government on 20 July after some, in the end rather confusing attempts were made outside the normal procedure via the Palace. The argument was that the king’s role is limited to periods when there is only a caretaking government.

 

 Egbert Lachaert is 41, from Merelbeke in the province of Eastern Flanders. He was elected in the federal parliament in 2014, became group leader of Open VLD (the Flemish liberals) in July 2019 and was elected party president with a large majority on 22 May this year.

 

 The last few days he has widely been blamed for the failure of the attempt of Bart De Wever and Paul Magnette to form a government based on the two largest parties in each region. Indeed the Flemish liberals have been internally divided and constantly wavering, including Lachaert himself, on the course to follow ever since the aftermath of the elections of 26 May 2019.

 

 Lachaert replied that it was the inflexibility of De Wever and Magnette that caused the failure. It is not unusual for the palace to send out the person who is perceived to have killed the previous attempt. The new negotiator announced on Tuesday afternoon that he will work in all discretion.

 

Announcing failure

 

 Paul Magnette and Bart De Wever, the two royal negotiatiors that were sent out by king Philip on 20 July to form at last a Belgian government, have leaked to the press today that they will hand in their mission next Monday, in failure. Although this is as yet not official and leaves two full days for a last round of poker, the odds are that the best change to form a stable government is now gone. Elections should be the only remaining outcome.

 

 Friday was Day 444 in the government negotiations in Belgium after the elections of 26 May 2019. Since the 20^th of July the leaders of the biggest party in each part of the country were at last working together to build a coalition that would tackle all the crises that the country is suffering from: corona, the economy and the consequences of the devastating election result last year.

 

 De Wever and Magnette, respectively the leader of the Flemish nationalists and the French-speaking socialists, succeeded in convincing the Flemish socialists, and both Christian democratic parties to start negotiations. Together they have 70 of the 150 seats in the federal parliament. They need a sixth partner to reach a majority.

 

 Both tried since two weeks to convince at least one of the two liberal parties to participate. The two together was not acceptable for Magnette, as this looked too much a reconduction of the previous centre-right government, with only the socialists (and the small French-speaking Christian democrats) added.

 

 As for De Wever his aversion against the French-speaking liberals has been growing, and especially against its new president George-Louis Bouchez, who opposes new institutional reforms. When the liberals maintained they would either enter together or stay out together, and put up some tough counterproposals to those of Magnette and De Wever, the latter went to the media last Saturday to denounce Bouchez publicly.

 

 After that both negotiators started talks with both green parties. But is unclear – certainly for the Flemish nationalists – if this attempt was genuine, or just a tool to pressure the liberals. Jean-Marc Nollet, the president of the French-speaking greens, has always been the most outspoken adversary of a coalition with the N-VA in it.

 

 A coup the theatre followed on Thursday. Greens and liberals issued together a press statement wherein they refused to be played out against each other again. Magnette and De Wever had brief meetings this morning with first the greens and then the liberals, which were quite icy in atmosphere. From noon onwards they started to leak their view: that they will go to the King on Monday on his return from holiday to hand in their mission.

 

 This leaves two days in which discreet contacts might still force a breakthrough, under the pressure of the political disaster that the failure of Magnette and De Wever inevitably would be. After they failed to meet in March, at the beginning of the corona-crisis, they now seem to have reached a fragile balance of aims to start negotiations, with institutional reform on the one hand and some kind of social generosity on the other. The personal relationship also seems to have widely improved.

 

 Ever since both parties came out as the strongest in each region in 2010 it is obvious they will have to talk to each other and work together as the only possible constellation to stabilise Belgium. Indeed, if Belgium would fall apart, the same parties would be doomed to find an agreement on separation.

 

 But after Magnette came out as an unpredictable negotiator in March, this time it is mainly Bart De Wever, already reputed to be a too heavy-handed negotiator with his partners, that lost his nerve in coming out with remarks you should keep inside as long as you are at the steering wheel. The negotiations skills of former prime ministers like Jean-Luc Dehaene, Guy Verhofstadt or Elio di Rupo are clearly failing in this crisis.

 

 Having said that, it is even more obvious that greens and liberals, whatever their argument that they needed more change on the proposals of the negotiators, have killed an historic moment with pitiful tactical considerations. The greens clearly are afraid of risks, the Flemish liberals, as a party and in their leadership, have not the slightest idea of what they really want.

 

 As for MR-president Bouchez he is more and more suspected of wanting to keep as long as possible the present government of Sophie Wilmès in power, which might in a crucial vote on 17 September in Parliament have lost all support, except that of the two liberal parties (26 seats together, not even 20 %). In that government the MR has seven ministers and a few hundred cabinet staff.

 

 The sudden alliance of greens and liberals on Thursday has created the suggestion that they will be the next to try another coalition of socialists, liberals and greens, eventually joined by the Christian democrats. The N-VA would remain outside. Such a government would have no majority of seats in Flanders, and is so, even if it is formed, unlikely to stay on for long.

 

 The paradox behind all this is that the opportunities to score and reform have never been greater. Institutional reform is obviously needed after the corona-mess and the elections of last year. There is wide scope for generous social policies, at least in the health sector and probably also about worker’s rights in enterprises. Liberal policies are needed for the hard-hit self-employed workers, against bureaucracy and for direct democracy and decentralisation. Climate change could create a mobilising investment project at the core of relaunching the economy, with for instance funds to isolate homes of the poor. Budgetary discussions should be limited to a tentative policy for the next ten years, as no one can for the moment predict what will be defined as sound budgetary policies even so soon as next year. All this lies hic et nunc on the table, but very few see it.

 

 The most likely outcome of the present mess are new elections, somewhere in October or early November. If one or two parties succeed in bringing over a sense of dramatic choice for the future of the country to the voters, it might rollback the result of last year, the most polarised and unstable parliament in the history of Belgium. But given all the bad impressions that have been created during the long, long and never sustained negotiations, the result might even be worse.