King Philip has given Egbert Lachaert, the president of the Flemish liberals, one more week to start formal government negotiations in Belgium. At day 459 it seems that in three weeks there will be either a center-left government or a decision for new elections.
Lachaert started his negotiations on 18 August. And although he refuses to confirm it explicitly, it is obvious that he is working on a center-left coalition with liberals, socialists and greens and eventually the Christian democrats. Without the latter – leading to a reconstruction of the first 'purple-green' coalition of Guy Verhofstadt in the years 1999-2003 – the coalition would have 76 of the 150 seats in the federal parliament. It will in any way not have a majority among the Flemish MPs.
The negotiator is working on a note of 50 pages to propose to his coalition partners. Up to now he encountered frozen reactions with the socialists – who suggest they obtained less from him than from Bart De Wever of the N-VA in the beginning of August. The Christian democrats for their part express serious doubts, maybe only to raise the prize. The greens seem to be the most willing. Lachaert received on Friday one week from king Philip to bring a workable majority around one negotiating table, something which has happened only a few moments in the previous 459 days, each time in vain.
Before that the president of the Flemish socialists, Conner Rousseau, declared that if this attempt fails, he will seek new elections. This is indeed the most likely scenario in that case. On 17 September parliament will meet to see if it confirms its vote of confidence, that it gave on 17 March to the caretaking government of Sophie Wilmès, in order to tackle the corona-crisis.
The intriguing question these days is why Egbert Lachaert changed his mind. Last November, when the then liberal party president Gwendolyn Rutten was manoeuvring to take part in a coalition of greens, socialists and liberals – eventually with herself at the head – Lachaert, who was in the running to succeed her, was the most strong advocate against this coalition, pleading instead to work with the Flemish nationalist.
Now, almost ten months later, he takes the same direction as Rutten. The difference might be that he had then the support of Alexander De Croo, today minister of Finances and deputy prime minister. He seems to have it today again, for the other option. De Croo might turn out to become the next prime minister, if Paul Magnette, the president of the French-speaking socialists, thinks this is better to defend the vulnerable Flemish flank of the new government to form.
In one week we might see more clear.
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