And yes, a corona-coalition

After 294 days, Belgium has at last something that should look like a new federal government. At 23 hours on Sunday the royal negotiators Dewael and Laruelle announced an agreement to make Sophie Wilmès, the outgoing caretaking prime minister, ‘formateur’ of a government that will receive ‘special powers’ for three to six months to tackle the corona-crisis. That government will keep the ministers that are already in the caretaking government, but the seven other parties that have yesterday promised to support it, will in some way be involved in its decisions.

 Patrick Dewael, the president of the federal Chamber of Representatives, and Sabine Laruelle, the president of the federal Senate (picture VRT), convened a press conference in the Parliament yesterday at 23 hours to announce an agreement on a new government. This was after a tumultuous weekend and a final round of negotiations of 9 hours. Initially six parties were around the table: two socialist, two liberals, the Flemish nationalists of N-VA and the Flemish Christian Democrats. In the evening both Green parties were associated, and finally also the French-speaking Christian Democrats and Défi, the small party of Brussels nationalists.

 Together these ten political parties – only the extreme left and the extreme right and two ‘independents’ are excluded - have  a majority of 118 of the 150 seats in the federal Parliament. They are all, except for the French-speaking Christian democrats, present in one of the regional governments in the country.

 Laruelle and Dewael, who were appointed on 19 February, will today report about their negotiations to king Philip at 10:00. They will ask him to appoint Sophie Wilmès ‘formateur’ of a new government. Wilmès is the 45 years old former Budget minister and MR-politician who succeeded to Charles Michel in November last year as head of a caretaking government of MR, Flemish liberals, and Flemish Christian democrats, a minority government with only 38 seats that was in charge since December 2018.

 The agreement made yesterday evening is that Wilmès will keep the ministers of the caretaking government in place, to keep up continuity in the midst of the corona-crisis. She will then ask, probably after a debate on Thursday, to be invested as new government by the majority of 118 in the Chamber. From then on the government will have full powers again.

That government will immediate introduce a law proposal to receive ‘special powers’. That is a formula that has been used for limited periods by past governments, mainly in periods of deep economic crisis (although it was also planned but never needed in the health crisis of the Mexican flu of 2009).

 In the law proposal it is defined for what task special powers are needed. Once the law is voted, the government can decide with legislative powers for that specific task by simple decision of the whole government together (in the form of an ‘Arrêté Royal’) and without seeking immediate approval of the Parliament. It is a procedure that is mainly intended to speed up the decision process. At the end of the period, the whole package of decisions taken with this technique, has to be approved or rejected without amending by a majority in the Chamber.

 Dewael and Laruelle specified that Wilmès shall ask special powers ‘for three months, with the possibility of prolongation to six months’. Dewael suggested that the latter period will probably prevail. The special powers will be defined to tackle the corona-crisis, including its economic and budgetary consequences. How that will be defined is to be seen in the next days. There is no text yet of the agreement made public.

 The crucial element is that the seven parties, who will support the Wilmès’s government from outside (both socialists and greens, plus N-VA, French-speaking Christian democrats and Défi, who, paradoxically, together form a potential majority of their own with 80 seats) will somehow be involved in both the writing of the special powers law and its execution via government decisions. Dewael and Laruelle named specifically the ‘kern’ (a kind of inner cabinet of the prime minister and the deputy-ministers of each party) and ‘party leaders or group leaders of the Chamber’ who would be involved.

 That last element makes the already unseen formula of a de facto minority government (in its composition of three parties) supported by a huge majority in the Chamber, even more original, if not fragile. Political parties are not even mentioned in the Constitution. In a normal legislative process and with the weapon of interpellations (to be ended by a vote of confidence) at the disposal of MPs, group leaders and groups of the majority in Parliament are indirectly involved in government decisions.

 But the power of these groups to vote a law will now disappear during probably six months on all issues related to corona. How they are going to have leverage on the decisions in the government without disposing of a ministerial signature remains to be seen. On political more delicate decisions, even about corona, different de facto majorities could grow inside the huge coalition of 118 seats, left-wing as well as right-wing, an thus also strongly Flemish or strongly French-speaking.

 What will happen with new discussions that arise outside the scope of the special powers? It was specified yesterday evening that there is not a single agreement on these. In the previous long period of government negotiations – the famous 540 days of 2011-12 – it happened quite often that ad hoc majorities in the Parliament voted new laws, even on delicate issues as migration, but then the caretaking government itself still could command a majority. And finally: will the support of the outside parties be materialized in some government functions with some salaries and personnel, let alone in nominations of crucial functions outside government?

 It is all unseen and the next days will have to bring clarification. For the moment both royal negotiators have indicated that the formal period of government negotiations after 294 days has come to an end. They expressed the hope that during the six months ‘confidence will grow’ to ‘reach a point where the formation of a fully-fledged government will be possible’ somewhere in early autumn.