Briefing: The mathematics of instability

 It is day 277 in the negotiations for the formation of a new Belgian government, or 9 months and three days since the last general elections. To understand why it is so difficult, just watch the composition of the federal Parliament since the elections of 26 May 2019. 

 Between brackets we show the amount of seats each political group in that Parliament lost or gained. Most of the eleven groups involved are either Dutch- or French-speaking, with two exceptions who prefer to stay together across the language border: the Greens (12 elected as French-speaking members, 9 as Flemish) and the Party des Travailleurs Belges (PTB, with 8 French-speaking and 4 Flemish):

Composition of the Belgian Chamber of Representatives, 1 March 2020

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA, Flemish Nationalists)                                 24 (-7)

Ecolo-Groen (Greens)                                                                                      21 (+9)

Parti Socialiste (PS, French-speaking socialists)                                            19 (-4)

Vlaams Belang (Extreme right Flemish nationalists)                                      18 (+15)

Mouvement Réformateur (MR, French-speaking liberals)                              14 (-6)

Christen-Democratisch & Vlaams (CD&V, Flemish Christian democrats     12 (-6)

Parti Travailleurs belges (PTB, extreme left)                                                 12 (+10)

Open VLD (Flemish liberals)                                                                           12 (-2)

Socialistische Partij Anders (SP.A, Flemish socialists)                                   9 (-4)

Centre Démocrate humaniste (CDH, French-speaking Christian democrats)   5 (-4)

Défi (Brussels French-speaking nationalists)         2 (SQ)

Independents        2 (-1)

 The numbers show the electoral earthquake that took place. Extreme left and right together gained 25 seats or a sixth of the total. To find a similar electoral shock in Belgian political history you have to turn to the election of … 1936, when fascist parties (Flemish nationalists and a new French-speaking party, called Rex) and (mainly French-speaking) communists together gained about 17 % of the seats.

The biggest loser in seats on 26 May 2019 was the N-VA, which was the core party of the federal government of Charles Michel between 2014 and 2018 (when the Flemish nationalists left the government in December). Together that four party coalition of N-VA, Flemish Christian democrats and both liberal parties lost 21 seats, or 14 % of the total.

The traditional parties (socialists, Christian democrats and liberals) taken together lost 26 seats. They fall far short (only 33 seats) of a majority of the 89 Flemish MPs (every elected MP has since 1970 to declare his or her language-obedience), and do not reach it either when the 9 Flemish Green MPs would be added (42 of 89). There is a (negative) Flemish majority of both nationalists parties and the 4 elected Flemish MPs of the extreme left. 

 On the French-speaking side the three traditionalist still obtain 38 of the 61 seats. There are now in Flemish Belgium 42 nationalist and in principle Flemish separatist MPs (or 47 % of all Flemish MPs) to the right of the traditional parties, and in French-speaking Belgium 20 green and extreme-left MPs (or 33 % of the total) to their left. Overall in Belgium the three traditionalists obtain only 71 seats, five short of the absolute majority of 76.

 All these numbers explain the difficulty (the picture shows how the repartition has been translated physically into the parliamentary hemicycle: strangely enough the Christian democrats and socialists still sit on the outer wings, putting the radicals right near the centre). Attempts have been made to bring the two biggest parties in each region – N-VA and PS – together as the core of a new government. But this was denounced as too much of a reconduction of the previous centre-right government by the Greens and the PTB in Wallonia, and so the PS dropped the idea two weeks ago.

 The negotiations these days seem to turn around the possibility of bringing together in one or another formula the three traditional parties plus the Greens, all in both language groups. Together they would have 93 seats, but that coalition would be exposed as being in minority among Flemish MPs with both Flemish nationalist groups in the opposition.

 In 1936 the three traditional parties had still enough seats together to sit out the rise of the extremists, in quite difficult circumstances (four governments succeeded each other before new early elections in 1939), but not without some success. This time this scenario is no longer at hand.